Autumn Cool Air Starts Next Week For A Few Days
Autumn Cool Air Starts Next Week For A Few Days
The lack of autumn cool air has been driving some folks crazy and I can understand that. Autumn is the nicest time of the year in my view with dry conditions usually through September and October. Instead we have been plagued by a very warm weather pattern in the Eastern US being dominated by a strong ridge in the East while the West has seen a deep trough with colder air away from the immediate West coast eastward through the Rockies with some early season snowfall.s The ridge in the East will still be with us through the weekend but we are going to see it flatten out and break down for a few days. This should allow a nice shot of Canadian air to move in.
JET STREAM PATTERN SATURDAY OCTOBER 14 2017
The trough that is swinging out of Canada will successful weaken that ridge over the weekend. Yes the weekend will be warm especially on Sunday where depending on how much sun it could get into the 80s in some places. A cold front puts an end to that fast.
GFS JET STREAM TUESDAY AUGUST 17, 2017
Unfortunately for cool weather lovers the change is temporary. There is absolutely no blocking at all in the atmosphere which means that once this trough moves east the ridge comes flying back at the end of next week. Monday and Tuesday will see below average temperatures but then its back to above average late next week.
GFS JET STREAM FRIDAY OCTOBER 20
With regards to rain it will be minimal to non existent next week. The jet stream pattern shuts off all moisture sources until further notice. There are no signs of any blocking developing in the North Atlantic. The tropics now are winding down and about the only place I think where something could develop is in the Caribbean where pressures under this scheme will remain lower than average.
SIBERIAN SNOW COVER GROWTH
Some of you have been asking about Siberian snow cover growth as this may (or may not) be linked to the kind of winter we might have. It is only one of many keys to the winter puzzle. The theory holds that a rapid rate of snow cover growth in this part of the world is a precursor to a colder winter in the Eastern US. That theory worked well until it became well known and publicized and it has suddenly stopped working. The last two winters, the rapid growth in snow cover in October DID NOT translate to a colder winter in the Eastern US.
SIBERIAN SNOW COVER GROWTH OCTOBER 1-11 2017 CLICK TO ANIMATE
We have said many times over the last few months that JOESTRADAMUS WILL NOT BE MAKING A WINTER FORECAST..and he repeats this now. There are just too many things to look at and digest and frankly JOESTRADAMUS can’t seem to get his head around it. He leaves that for others. Right now the rate growth has been substantial and lies near the top of the range of the last several years but it is where it finishes the month that matters. Of course this assumes that the index works and the last 2 winters have called that into question.
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