Winter Weather Advisory NW New Jersey NE Pennsylvania
Coastal Flood Advisory NJ Shore
I hope you got to enjoy this beautiful mainly sunny day across the tri-state arear as temperatures made their way into the 50s in many locations. Now we will be watching clouds increase tonight. Colder areas well north and west of the coast have a Winter Weather Advisory in effect and that is mainly in Northwest New Jersey north of Route 78 and West of Route 287. The issue will be for the chance of freezing rain in the 3 Northwestern New Jersey counties of Sussex Warren & Morris Counties. Advisories also are posted for Northeastern Pennsylvania mainly north and northeast of Route 78 out to just west of Allentown PA.
Along the immediate coast we are experiencing higher than normal tides due to high pressure to the north and a developing east to southeast flow tonight into Saturday. We have a new moon tonight and that will add to higher tides as well so a Coastal Flood Advisory is posted for the New Jersey shore with higher than normal tides also expect for Long Island.
Clouds that have been to our west for much of the day will begin to move in tonight and they will increase rather quickly. The regional radar shows the leading edge of moderate rain moving mostly to the north with the western edge into Western Pennsylvania southward into West Virginia. The rain will be swinging eastward overnight and will be arriving from west to east before daybreak.
Upon arrival temperatures in those areas under a Winter Weather Advisory might be just under the freezing mark so look for some freezing rain to develop. Light icing is forecast but in some of the colder spots some additional icing is possible but that should be limited.
For everyone else it will be a rainy Saturday and some of the rain will be heavy. Rainfall totals will range from an inch to an inch and a quarter with a few spots perhaps getting as much as an inch and a half.
The back edge of the rain moves out of Southern New Jersey and Southeastern Pennsylvania by 1 or 2pm and reaches NYC around 7pm. Then weather conditions will start to improve afterwards. Temperatures Saturday will be in the 40s but 50s are possible south with just 30s north of NYC. Sunday will be a better day with a bit of a gusty breeze and a mix of sun and clouds with highs in the 40s.
Next week we have a complex split flow pattern developing across the US which will keep us mostly dry for most of the work week. The systems in the northern part of the split are relatively weak and do nothing more than bring a few clouds through from time time. The southern part of the split however will likely carry a rather strong short wave and upper low eastward. Its impact on the East Coast will depend on how it reacts to the northern jet and whether it phases with it or not at some point. Weather models are going to deal with timing issues which explains the GFS model taking a major storm next weekend up toward the Great Lakes while the European model forces all the energy southeast creating a coastal system that tracks northeastward up the coast. Clearly it is WAY to early to even begin speculating on this. In the meantime much of next week is quiet until we get some clarity on how the end of next week ultimately plays out.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.