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Winter Storm Warning, Snow Breaking Out Across New Jersey, NYC, Long Island
The radar presentation on the regional radar view as well as surface observations showing up this early are impressive. Snow is breaking out ahead of the main area of expanding precipitation in the green areas to the south so it is telling you that the atmosphere is ripe and ready to let go snow wise. Many have posted on my facebook page regarding the weather conditions today and coming to all sorts of incorrect conclusions. In March it is VERY COMMON for temperatures to be in the 40s before a snow event It is due to the time of year and the approaching spring season. Ground temps may be warm but it is cold aloft and under the right conditions those temperatures get corrected in a hurry. Based on what is going on this evening I think that many areas will finish closer to the higher end of the ranges in my final call forecast than the lower. The area of biggest concern would be Central and South Jersey and how far north does warm air penetrate. Here it is a tossup but I think my numbers there are reasonable.
REGIONAL RADAR
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
We are starting to see the local radars get busy and that will continue to increase into this evening. After 7pm accumualting snows of at least 1 inch an hour should be occuring through most of the area.
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
For Long Island and along the Route 1 Corridor in New Jersey the issue is a change over to sleet. How far north does it get? The change over to sleet reaches Route 1 by Midnight and Long Island between 1 and 2am. Latest HRRR model shows a colder atmosphere coming into play holding warm air at bay.
This lends confidence to the idea that the higher end of the ranges will be met. Snow or whatever precipitation is ending in Southern Pennsylvania by 1 or 2 am, NYC by 2 or 3am and Long Island by 4am. Weather conditions improve on Monday with sunshine, a gusty wind and temperatures in the 30s. Very cold weather arrives Tuesday through Thursday. Though we will see sunshine, Tuesday and Wednesday highs in many areas will be just in the upper 20s and lower 30s at best with nights in the teens and single digits.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
