Winter Storm Warning NW New Jersey Advisories Expanded NE NJ, Significant Icing Inland
Winter Storm Warnings have been issued for Sussex & Warren Counties in New Jersey plus Carbon & Monroe Counties. Winter Weather Advisories now cover all the New Jersey counties north and west of the Turnpike (except for Hudson County). Winter Weather Advisories also cover all of the Hudson Valley and Connecticut. New York City and Long Island are not included in the advisory area at the moment.
This was my final call forecast issued early this morning to Patreon members. Snow fall totals will likely be overshadowed by icing which will be significant in some areas. Up to a quarter of an inch of ice accretion is possible inside the red polygon on the map. This is on top of the snowfall that is forecast. That snow comes in a quick burst later this evening.
We are beginning to see precipitation spreading into South Central and soon into Southeast Pennsylvania as the evening commute begins. We expect the evening commute in the areas surrounding NYC to by dry. Snow will develop between 8 and 10 pm from Central New Jersey northward.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Temperatures are very tenuous with temperatures in the low to mid 30s going into this evening. There has hardly been any wind and most of the time the wind has been from a land based direction holding in the cold. The short term models make the case for a solid burst of snow lasting a few hours near the coast and a bit longer inland to put down the amount being forecast.
The HRRR model seems to be picking up on the colder atmosphere that covers us this evening. The snow sleet rain line only grudgingly give way as slightly warmer air saves the day at the coast but not inland. This loop is from 9pm tonight on the first frame and ends at 6am on the last. Ice Accretion will be significant inland with up to a quarter of an inch forecast.
Counties in NW New Jersey and in the Hudson Valley north of 287 could be hit especially hard by the snow ice combination making for an exceptionally difficult Tuesday morning commute. The 32 degree line has a very tough time getting much further north than Route 287 in NY State and New Jersey through this entire storm which will come to an end Tuesday afternoon.
Once the system departs cold air takes over again and even cold air will arrive late Wednesday. A cold front passes with an upper trough and there is a chance for some snow showers or even a heavier snow squall when the front goes through.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any severe weather, tropical storms, or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.