winter pattern

Winter Pattern Change Becomes Complicated

Winter Pattern Change Becomes Complicated

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Winter Pattern Change Becomes Complicated

The advertised pattern change to a cold wintry pattern may be taking on a bit of a twist. Weather models for the last two days have suddenly become consistent with the overall look of the jet stream pattern. They have seemed to have locked in to the idea of blocking in the Atlantic shifting westward which will create a deep trough in the Eastern US and a flow of air straight from Northern Canada south and east, as far south as Florida and as far west as the Eastern Plains south to Texas.

EUROPEAN THURSDAY DECEMBER 7

winter pattern

GFS THURSDAY DECEMBER 7

winter pattern

While the models are similar in the overall general look there are some differences that will impact what happens when the cold air arrives. The European model has a much broader “bowl” look with the bottom of trough or the base of the jet stream. There are 2 upper air disturbances in the flow but the broadness of the trough would suggest that the front that moves through Wednesday will pass offshore. There could be a chance to sleet or wet snow before the rain ends and then it turns colder and dry behind it. The European does show hints that this could be more like the GFS which has a different outcome. With the sharper trough that swings around to the coast, it suggests a wave develops on the front and brings rain changing to snow or snow next Thursday into Thursday night.

winter pattern

Both scenarios are plausible and it will depend on the structure of the upper trough. The European hinted at this idea yesterday and the GFS has also hinted at this possibility over the last 2 days. We have seen fronts in the last 2 months where waves did develop on them and in some cases it didn’t pick up on them at the last minute.

EUROPEAN TEMPERATURE ANOMALY CLICK TO ANIMATE

winter pattern

 

Regardless of which model gets the wave question right, both models turn it significantly colder and keep it cold for awhile It appears this pattern could hold overall (other than the one day warm ups that could always occur) for quite awhile since it appears the blocking signature will be holding into mid month. While the block may eventually go away (as they always do) there are indications that the vortex in Canada could hold in place for a lot longer period of time.

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