Winter 2016 Done
With regards to Winter 2016 it is done, kaput, ova! Even if something should happen between now and early April, it will be in the context of spring and not winter. In my view they are 2 separate seasons and should be viewed as such. JOESTRADAMUS also continues remain unimpressed by the pattern going forward. Yes it could go blocky for a while and yes it could be cool or chilly for a few days or so. But this is nothing unusual for early spring. Blocky patterns in the spring are rather common. As I made the point in my piece yesterday, I just can’t get worked up over anything in the long range, and after today’s model runs, I still can’t get too worked up over things.
Winter 2016 Done Long Term Indices
Lets address the short term. The North Atlantic Oscillation is going to go negative next week. This has implications for the weather beginning this Sunday. It appears that an onshore flow will be setting up and it might be around for at least a few days. The European has rain on and off for much of next week and given the NAO going negative, I think that we will have to do a little payback for the nice stretch of weather we are enjoying this week.
Winter 2016 Done Euro Model Surface Monday and Tuesday of Next Week
The European has rain here for Monday and again on Tuesday as low pressure heads to the Great Lakes and weakens while a front stretches across southern Pennsylvania to off the Southern New Jersey coast. This argues for an onshore flow into Tuesday until the low goes by. However the Euro model is not done as another high builds across Southern Canada and low pressure moves east from the Middle Mississippi Valley to the coast Wednesday night and Thursday with more rain possible. The negative N.A.O. and blocking is all fine and dandy but it comes with not much if any cold air to speak of. This is typical of spring time set ups.
As I said yesterday, if there is going to be a late March snow it is going to have to come with a picture perfect setup. Right now I just don’t see it. Winter 2016 Done!!!!
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