WINTER 2016-2017 NEW JERSEY FORECAST
WINTER 2016-2017 NEW JERSEY FORECAST
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES
ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWFALL NORTH AND NORTHWEST
NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL & MOST OF SOUTH JERSEY & COAST
WINTER 2016-2017 THE CASE FOR A COLDER THAN NORMAL WINTER
The state of the atmosphere right now points to colder than normal conditions. We have no EL Nino and only weak La Nina conditions in the Pacific. The polar vortex in the upper atmosphere is extremely weak. A weak polar vortex in the highest levels of the atmosphere means warm air covers the polar regions which means cold air is displaced southward into Canada and into the East.
WINTER 2016-2017 GREENLAND BLOCK
This volatile feature which has been virtually absent in the last 4 winters looks to make an appearance this winter. The index has been negative for much of October and is forecast to remain negative for the start of November. This suggests a higher probability of colder air being displaced southward from Eastern Canada.
WINTER 2016-2017 PACIFIC OCEAN
Here the indexes are rather mixed at the moment. The dominance of the Pacific Jet stream and where it is with respect to other features can at times displace warm air northward and this part of the equation remains in flux at the moment.
WINTER 2016-2017 SIBERIAN SNOW COVER
Siberian snow cover has been the new “go to” indicator and it has been successful in non el nino years in forecasting colder winters in the Eastern US. This index finished at its second highest level in the last 12 years and is on par with the winters of 2014-15, and 2013-14, both of which produced colder than normal winters with snowfalls more than double the average snowfall of 20 to 50 inches. Below is the map of snowfall departures in the winter of 2014-15. During the three months December-February snowfall was 30 inches above normal.
Given all this I am forecasting below average temperatures for the 4 month period of December through March on the order of 2 to 3 degree below normal. Average temperatures from December through February (high and low divided by 2) are on the order of about 32 degrees in North Jersey and about 35 to 36 degrees in South Jersey and along the coast.
WINTER 2016-2017 OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES
The ocean plays a big role in New Jersey. Areas east of the Garden State Parkway and Southern New Jersey always have issues with any kind of east wind through virtually the entire winter. Even in the coldest of winters the shore finds a way to change over to rain. However the forecast for below average temperatures could compensate this to some degree. Also ocean water temperatures are only running slightly above average at this time and they are well below last year’s extreme levels. Water temperatures always need to be watched carefully.
WINTER 2016-2017 SNOWFALL FORECAST
The snowfall forecast is going to hinge on the state of the drought pattern which is having a big impact in Northern New Jersey but less so in the south. Given the temperature profiles and the fact that there is no El Nino issue, I think that we will revert back to a more normal distribution of snow. In fact I think this could be a year where areas north and west may wind up with higher than normal snowfall over the course of the winter. The average snowfall for Northern New Jersey is 40 to 50 inches but there are areas where the normals are higher than this based on elevation. Those areas could see even higher amounts.
If the drought pattern should ease, then we can see higher amounts then forecast.
SNOW REMOVAL COMPANIES FOR YOUR WINTER NEEDS
LONG ISLAND ROCKLAND COUNTY Connecticut
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