Weekend Weather Looking A Bit Better As Low Stays South

Weekend Weather Looking A Bit Better As Low Stays South

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Weekend Weather Looking A Bit Better As Low Stays South

A few days ago it appeared like we would be in for a soaking rain storm for Sunday into Monday but as we mentioned yesterday, weather models have completely backed off from this idea and that trend continues today. However it doesn’t make the forecast any easier for a number of reasons. The first is the flow will be basically onshore through the weekend especially Saturday night into Sunday which is at the very least going to create cloud issues. The second complication is that while the low is weaker and further south, there is going to be some moisture that is going to try and creep northward Saturday night into Sunday morning and this could bring a little bit of rain for areas like coastal New Jersey and for Long Island though even here the rain is likely to drop southward during the day Sunday. The NAM model has a totally different idea altogether where Saturday winds up being cloudy with some showers lingering as waves move along on a stalled front and then Sunday it would be mostly sunny with temperatures in the 60s to near 70 everywhere! Meanwhile the Canadian and European model would have it dry Saturday except in Southern New Jersey where it rains into Sunday morning. After that the low moves off the Southeast coast and then meanders up the east coast all of next week with an endless onshore flow and occasional rain coming in from off the ocean!

WEEKEND WEATHER THE NAM MODEL SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY

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weekend weather

What the NAM does is stall the next front with a series of waves that actually produce clouds and rain for Saturday in some areas. Then the front sinks southward and Sunday looks good with sunshine and highs in the 60s as high pressure just to our south keeps us in dry west wind and no onshore flow.

Weekend WeatherI Into Next Week European Model

weekend weather

The European model would suggest some drying on Saturday and a mostly dry Sunday except for Southern New Jersey where rain would be around at least into Sunday morning before sinking south. Then it takes the upper air distubance in the southern part of the jet stream and swings it offshore first and the lifting it northward created a wind and rain even here for Tuesday of next week!

What do I do with all this? Right now it would seem to me that the European model makes a little more sense than the others. I’m going to bet that the rain for Saturday dries out long before it gets here so that we will be dealing with cloud issues and not much else. Sunday would be mostly dry though not necessarily cloud free if we have to deal with an onshore flow. If the flow is weak we may wind up with more sun especially as you go north. Monday would be dry followed by rain and some wind on Tuesday. There is a new moon next Wednesday April 26th so if the European is right there could be some tidal flooding issues. Way Way too much uncertainty here to have a really good handle on the forecast beyond tonight and Friday!

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