Weekend Forecast New York, New Jersey, Connecticut: Dry & Chilly

Weekend Forecast New York, New Jersey, Connecticut: Dry & Chilly

Yesterday’s cold front is through but the storm system responsible is moving slowly across the US-Canadian border as the satellite loop shows.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/vis-animated.gif

The cyclonic circulation around that storm makes for a somewhat unstable air mass overhead so we may see a few clouds today mixed with some sun. Being close to that low center means some wind issues into Saturday afternoon with westerly winds gusting to 30 mph at times and Gale Warnings are up for the coastal waters.

winds windgusts

Temperatures today will have a bit of a tough time today holding in the low to mid 50s and then dropping down into the 30s tonight. Warmer urban areas might be closer to 40. Since everyone has had a freeze/frost that is no longer an issue.

Saturday and Sunday look like 2 nice days with sunshine but Saturday’s highs won’t be out of the 40s. Sunday we should get back into the middle 50s in most places.

The warmup continues as we head back into the 60s next week. All the action in the atmosphere shifts westward into the central Rockies and Central Plains as a storm is set to form there and there will be some big snows for somebody in that region.

gfs120 gfs114

For us with the trough position in the atmosphere well west and a strong ridge position in the east, we will warm up back into the 60s and the rain from this storm probably won’t even make it here until Thursday at the earliest if at all. The pattern remains locked at all levels with no access to cold air except in the west. Intrusions of cold air just don’t last for more than a day or so and the air is not truly cold air anyway. At best we see tempertures back to normal for a day or so and then done. We will examine the longer range weather forecasting models to see what clues it offers for the coming weeks. Don’t expect much change until the polar vortex up in Alaska/Siberia/North Pole gets out of the way.

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