Week Ahead Looks Less Gloomy As Arthur & Upper Air Storm Stay SuppressedWeek Ahead Looks Less Gloomy As Arthur & Upper Air Storm Stay Suppressed
Things have certainly turned for the better to an extent. We saw that this weekend which actually turned out to be rather nice with only occasional rounds of cloud cover and more sun than anything else. The Sunday rain that was advertised last week never materialized nor is the rain materializing for tonight through Wednesday it seems. We are seeing everything in the weather pattern suggesting that much of the cloud cover and rain will stay well south from the Mid Atlantic states south and Tropical Storm Arthur which will graze the Carolinas will make a right turn on Monday and head out to sea.
From NYC north and east we have clear skies. South and west we have cloud cover. This area is where the onshore flow from the east is having a bigger impact. The radar is actually picking up some scattered showers across Eastern Pennsylvania and also parts of New Jersey. Most of the showers are light and moving to the northeast. Heavier showers are in Western NY on the regional radar and those are destined for Northern New England tonight into Monday.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Look for some clouds tonight with most lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The next 2 days should be no worse than partly sunny from NYC north and east and partly to mostly cloudy from NYC south and west. Highs Monday will be in the mid to upper 60s.
The flow is going to be onshore all week. That is to say that winds will be from off the ocean. That will keep temperatures in check especially when clouds are an issue which I think they will be Tuesday through Thursday. So look for daytime highs only into the 60s and along the coast many areas might not get out of the 50s. We are expecting the high to the north to keep things suppressed to the south. The easterly flow will create coastal flooding concerns beginning on Tuesday and lasting into Thursday. We are approaching a new moon at the end of the week so tides will be rising into that new moon. No rain is forecast until late Thursday and possibly not until Friday.
The upper low to the west is acting like a punter and kicking it out to the east and offshore, however we are going to have to get the upper low out of the way in order for better weather to return here and that may take all week before the upper low gets out of the way. If it times right then next weekend which is the Memorial Day holiday weekend could turn out ok.
Tropical Storm Arthur Tropical Storm Warnings Outer Banks North Carolina
We have not seen much change in strength with Tropical Storm Arthur this afternoon. We see a well defined circulation however the winds remain at 45 mph. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the Outer Banks of North Carolina where gusty winds and heavy rains will develop overnight and into Monday morning.
Not only have the clouds reached the North Carolina coast from the Southeast but we see rain bands offshore backing northwest and westward and rain will be developing shortly along the coast from Cape Hatteras southwest to about Myrtle Beach. We have two local radar views from Morehead City and Wilmington North Carolina.
LOCAL RADAR MOREHEAD CITY NC
LOCAL RADAR WILMINGTON NC
The forecast track for Arthur remains the same. We expect the tropical storm to strengthen a bit as it nears the coast. Rain and gusty winds overnight into Monday morning and then weather conditions improve later Monday to an extent as the storm turns more easterly and heads out into the open waters of the Atlantic.
There will be more rain coming into the Mid Atlantic states Tuesday as low pressure moves east from the Ohio Valley with energy forced southward to the Carolinas. However as you can see on the latest GFS run above, those rains never make it to our area area and we look to stay dry at least into Wednesday. We will address the local weather forecast in a separate post shortly.
SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 275 MI…440 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…45 MPH…75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH…15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Surf City to Duck NC
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was
located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 77.2 West. Arthur is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
during the next 24 to 36 hours. A turn toward the east is forecast
to occur on Tuesday. On the forecast track, Arthur will remain
well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina tonight,
and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on
Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the
United States Monday night and Tuesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so.
Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics on Tuesday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical
Storm Warning area on Monday.
RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina tonight and Monday,
with locally higher amounts.
SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of
the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along
the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.