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Weather Models Remain Perplexed After Cold Air Arrives

Weather Models Remain Perplexed After Cold Air Arrives

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Weather Models Remain Perplexed After Cold Air Arrives

At least from the standpoint of the arrival of the cold air weather models today seem to be lined up pretty well. We have a weather front that will arrive early Wednesday with showers Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Temperatures ahead of it will run up into the 50s to near 60 Tuesday and then once the front passes temperatures on Wednesday will fall into and through the 40s and we will be sitting in the 20s to lower 30s Thursday morning. Thursday looks dry with some sunshine and highs just in the upper 30s to the lower 40s. That is the easy part. The more difficult part lies between Friday and the middle part of next week as a serious of systems will be diving into the Eastern US and each one will create a forecast problem.

GFS WEATHER MODEL FRIDAY AFTERNOON NEW RUN

weather models

GFS WEATHER MODEL FRIDAY OVERNIGHT RUN

weather models

Problem number 1 remains the cold front which will stall out and a wave will develop on it. Both the European and the GFS have been going back and forth on whether we will see anything from this. The models today have it mostly  offshore but that comes after models from overnight had exactly the opposite as the maps above illustrate. The GFS skims our area with some snow on today’s run but it is much less than what the overnight runs did. This is due to the flat nature of the wave though the flow along the coast is southwest enough to make things close. The last 6 weeks or so we have seen several instances of models being offshore only to come back westward.

GFS MODEL SATURDAY MORNING DECEMBER 9TH

Right behind the wave is the strong upper trough that swings east from the Ohio Valley for Saturday into Saturday night. Here the problem is that the systems are basically too close together leaving little room. If the first wave is more developed it will leave less moisture for the strong energy to the west to work on. The European model is slower with the second system allowing for more room and a further south track though it doesn’t show all that much happening precipitation wise.

weather models

There is a third system that drops in for the December 13-15th timeframe and both the GFS & European model show a powerhouse disturbance digging southeastward into the Ohio Valley.

There is no doubt that the pattern is going to be cold and active however the individual details are far from being worked out yet. Since we have plenty of time we will continue to wait to see where weather models go with this between now and Monday. I would lean to the idea of some precipitation on Friday but the confidence level is low. That system will impact the strength and track of system number 2 on Saturday which will impact system number 3 next week. At least for now we are sure of everything through Thursday.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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