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Weather Models Moving Toward Colder Pattern Long Range

Weather Models Moving Toward Colder Pattern Long Range

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Weather Models Moving Toward Colder Pattern Long Range

Weather models continue to move the chess pieces around and there are some more clues today pointing to a return to a colder pattern in the long range. However this may take another 10 days to 2 weeks to play out. In the meantime we continue to see a pattern of in and out cold air masses with cold fronts coming through from time to time with some showers. The first of these fronts arrives on Sunday with some rain showers ahead of it. High pressure is passing out to the southeast which will take the chill that is just returning today and Thursday to pull out with milder temperatures following for Saturday. Saturday will be the better of the two weekend days with some sunshine and highs reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s. We will get through some showers and mild temperatures on Sunday. The showers probably won’t amount to much. The wave in the Northeastern Gulf of Mexico will move northeast and should pass well to our south and east. What follows is another shot of cold air for the first part of next week.

WEATHER MODELS GFS SUNDAY 1PM

weather models

Monday into Wednesday temperatures will be a bit below average but not by much. Afterwards we begin what should be the grinding process of the upper air pattern readjusting. We continue to watch with interest the teleconnections as they will point the way forward. The East Pacific Oscillation is probably the most important regarding cold air. Today’s models show the EPO turning sharply negative and in fact today’s runs are more aggressive on the move down. The deeper into negative territory, the stronger and more dominant the cold pattern will be.

weather models

The EPO is important no doubt but the Pacific North America Index is probably more important for sustainability. Up until yesterday the PNA was forecast to be strongly negative however today’s run show the PNA spiking higher from deep negative to the neutral zone.

weather models

The spiking PNA index to neutral is because today’s models are showing a strong ridge beginning to build just inland of the West Coast rather then building offshore. This position is important in order to establish the connection in the flow from Northern Canada into the Eastern US.

WEATHER MODELS GFS JET STREAM MONDAY FEBRUARY 7

weather models

Going forward we will now have to see whether this trend continues in the coming days. We have a long way to go to get to this point and no doubt model runs will be doing their usual dance around the specifics. Other technical indicators point this happening. One key is the strong low that forms north of Hawaii which will force the ridge to build in the west. All of this makes for a very complex weather pattern going forward. As for snow in all of this, if this verifies I’m sure we will have some chances along the way.

 

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