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Weather Models Long Range Weather Active & Chilly

Weather Models Long Range Weather Active & Chilly

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Weather Models Long Range Weather Active & Chilly

4indices-2

Long term teleconnection indices are all pointing to (in general) colder than average temperatures and a pattern that is dominated by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation. What does that mean? The North Atlantic Oscillation measures pressure changes in the North Atlantic. When the index is negative pressures in the northern latitudes are higher which means cold air and the mean jet stream is (in general) displaced southward into the Eastern United States. This favors temperatures averaging below normal. The index forecast for today shows the index to be negative into the first week of December. We also have a negative Eastern Pacific Oscillation index (measures the same concept in the..you guessed it..East Pacific). This also favors a colder look to the overall pattern across North America.

The pattern switch began really about a week ago and it is about to play out going forward. One of the things I think will happen is that we will see weather systems with more frequency moving across the United States. At the very least this could give us opportunities to start cutting the drought stranglehold. The tendency of having below normal temperatures will also mean some snow possibilities going forward however bear in mind that having all this doesn’t guarantee anything regarding snow or even rain. Weather systems still need to set up in a way to deliver and that doesn’t always occur.

WEATHER MODELS GFS THANKSGIVING MORNING

weather models ong range forecast

Looking ahead to this week, the next weather system approaches for Thanksgiving. Weather models long range agree that this is system is weaker and the atmosphere over the northeast will be colder. I think that if precipitation runs in fast enough Wednesday night into Thanksgiving, we could see it start off as snow or sleet even along coastal areas. However the upper air system with this is very weak.

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN THANKSGIVING MORNING

weather models

Precipitation amounts are on the order of a quarter to a half inch in most places on the GFS model. The European model shows even less precipitation. However models seem to be placing emphasis on a second weather system behind it for next weekend.

weather models

This is going to create a second low just offshore with much more precipitation for Friday night and Saturday. Cold air will be limited but it won’t be that far away. Models could correct colder over time given the status of the negative NAO.

WEATHER MODELS EUROPEAN SATURDAY MORNING NOVEMBER 26 2016

weather models

We will watch model developments as we move into Thanksgiving week. Last night’s surprise snowfall over parts of New Jersey and Southeastern NY could be a warning sign that things this winter will be much different than last winter. The pattern for the next few weeks looks to be rather interesting to say the least and we will stay on top of things as we go forward.

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