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Weather Models Continue Christmas Insanity

Weather Models Continue Christmas Insanity

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Weather Models Continue Christmas Insanity

Congratulations to any weather forecaster out there who has this all figured out. I don’t. The amount of model variability is amazing and frustrating since we are now inside 5 days of Christmas and the general flow of how things are going to play out remains completely unresolved and at literally polar opposites. At the same time the upper air jet stream structure on all the models carries a general similarity. The devil is in the details.

GFS FORECAST SUNDAY 12/24/2017 7AM

weather models

EUROPEAN FORECAST SUNDAY 12/24/2017 7AM

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It is the same trough on both models but they are both handled differently. The GFS has a broader trough further east with a weaker ridge off the Southeast coast. The result is the model overwhelms cold air everywhere beginning Sunday which means it turns cold and dry for Sunday and Monday. The European has the same trough much further west with a stronger high off the Southeast US coast. This keeps the stalling cold front back across the Tennessee Valley back through Texas. Holding back the energy is something the European is guilty of from time to time so this idea while plausible is by no means a certainty. On the other hand the GFS loves to overwhelm cold air too fast and pushes fronts further offshore then reality and you wind up adjusting back westward.

GFS SURFACE FORECAST CHRISTMAS MORNING

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EUROPEAN SURFACE FORECAST CHRISTMAS MORNING

weather models

The surface maps for Christmas morning are in two different worlds. The European would have a snowstorm across much of upstate New York & New England away from the coast with a cold soaking rain along the coast Sunday night into Monday. The GFS would simply have a dry day with sun and clouds with temperatures in the 20s & 30s. If you compromise the two models you come up with a promising look for snow lovers but I don’t feel comfortable with a compromise at this point since both models paint pictures that are entirely possible.

One thing all the models seem to agree on is the possibiltiy for 2 more snow threats later next week but I don’t even want to begin looking at those until we get through this one and resolve the Christmas Eve Christmas Day dilemma.

 

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

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