WEATHER MODELS DIFFER ON SPEED OF COASTAL SYSTEM
We are confident that we will be dealing with low pressure moving up the East Coast this weekend however we are not confident on arrival and ending time as weather models are all over the place with regards to this. The faster NAM model has rain overspreading the area Friday afternoon and evening with wind and rain Friday and Saturday and likely improving weather conditions on Sunday. However the global models paint a different picture with a slower moving system that initially fights against the high to the north on Friday with rain moving in late Friday night and Saturday and still lingering around on Sunday. This is an important difference not only in trying to figure out the beginning and the end of the rain but it is also important regarding coastal flooding. The faster the storm arrives, the more critical it is to the coastal flooding since it will be closer to the peak high tides from Wednesday nights full moon.
The Canadian and the GFS have the trough a bit slower but those models also show an upstream shortwave troung in the Northern Plains right behind this which the European and NAM do not show. Also the GFS and Canadian hold on to the upper low to the Northeast in Eastern Canada which keeps dry air in the Northeast much longer slowing everything down.
The model differences grow ever larger by Saturday which at this time the European has rain and wind all over the place with a low off the Delaware Coast interacting with the strong high in the Canadian Maritimes. This sets up a tight pressure gradient and gales developing Friday night and continuing on Saturday. Rain would arrive Friday night north of NYC & sooner to the south.
The GFS being so much slower doesn’t get the bulk of the rain in here until the daytime Saturday as the surface low is much further to the south off the North Carolina coast.
We are leaning to the faster NAM/European which would argue for improving weather conditions on Sunday with the low in New England on the European on Sunday morning. The differences are due to the European moving the Canadian system to the northeast out a little faster while the GFS is holding on to that feature longer which slows everything down to a crawl. The blocky nature of the pattern suggests this is possible but the blockiness is not all that strong so it would seem logical that things would move along a little faster. If this works out. Friday night and Saturday will be rough while weather conditions improve on Sunday.
Regardless of the timing there will be about 12-18 hours of gale force winds along the coast of 30 to 40 mph with higher gusts and the likelihood of moderate coastal flooding at the very least from coastal Delaware to Southern New England. As for snow lovers elevation driven snows are possible in the middle to upper Hudson Valley and possibly into the Northern Catskills as well as into interior New England. If weather conditions improve on Sunday they are likely to deteriorate on Monday as the upper trough swings to the east coast with another low developing just off shore so more rain is possible. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches seem quite likely with locally higher amounts possible.
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