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Weather Models Bullish Winter Pattern Long Range

Weather Models Bullish Winter Pattern Long Range

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Weather Models Bullish Winter Pattern Long Range

Today’s weather models were all strongly bullish on a wintry pattern developing next week. It also appears judging by the models strengthening of the blocking pattern over Eastern Canada & Greenland that this pattern may stick around for awhile once it gets locked in later next week.

weather models

We often look at signals being given by teleconnection indices. These indexes measure changes in pressure across the North Atlantic & North Pacific. All these indices are screaming bullish signals for a  colder then average temperature pattern in the Eastern United States beginning a week from today (Wednesday). The standout here is the Pacific North America index or PNA which is giving off an off the wall positive value. This means that  very strong upper air ridge is going to develop in the West. This shifts the jet stream where it is moving straight north to south for the Arctic regions into the Eastern United States. The strong positive signal is also bullish for storm development later next week somewhere in the Eastern US though where and how remain unanswerable questions at this early stage of the game.

WEATHER MODELS BULLISH ON WINTRY PATTERN

EUROPEAN MODEL NEXT FRIDAY 12/8/2017

weather models

The European model today illustrated this quite well with the upper air pattern in extreme positions on both coasts. Very strong ridges of high pressure develop in both the West and in the Atlantic up toward Western Greenland which forces a compensating deep trough to develop in the Eastern US. The flow of air comes straight north to south and then eastward. The GFS model has generally the same idea as the European though there are some differences in the postion and structure. The idea however is the same.

WEATHER MODELS BULLISH WINTRY PATTERN GFS SATURDAY DECEMBER 9

weather models

It seems the models have the cold part of the equation lined up. We would caution that we will continue to see model shifts as the way they both handle the strength of the Atlantic blocking differently on every run. However in general terms if we are going to have the jet stream pattern stretch to the extreme, this atmosphere is going to get the equivalent of a huge headache and it is going to have to find a way to relieve that headache at some point somewhere.

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