Weather Models Breaking Block With Coastal Storm This Weekend
Weather Models Breaking Block With Coastal Storm This Weekend
We are beginning to see signs of the block breaking down and weather models accelerate the process over the coming days. Often times when this happens we get some sort of storm development somewhere. It seems the Middle Atlantic and Northeast will be the ones to see it in the form of a fast and not so usual mid May noreaster for Saturday night into Sunday morning. The satellite loop shows the large upper low leftover from last Friday’s heavy rain churning along the New England coast. Clouds to the northeast of that are moving southwestward in response to a blocking high over Greenland and a strong storm over the Azores. It is a complex surface and upper air pattern. But with that block breaking down it opens the door for low pressure now in the Southwest to head for the East coast for the weekend.
GFS MODEL SHOWS GALES WITH LOW PRESSURE NEAR MONTAUK
SUNDAY MORNING
Much like the last several days clouds are rotating through this evening but we should go clear overnight at some point with lows in the 40s. Thursday I think will be partly sunny much like today with highs in the 50s along the coast and low to mid 60s inland.
SATELLITE LOOP
REGIONAL RADAR
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
LOCAL RADAR PHILADELPHIA
Friday look for sunshine to give way to arriving clouds from both the east and the west as low pressure begins it approach. The rain for Saturday will develop from south to north during the morning with the heaviest rains moving up later in the afternoon into Saturday night. Areas to the south of NYC will see the rains end probably by daybreak or sooner while areas to the north and east will rain for awhile longer.
GFS RAINFALL FORECAST FROM NOREASTER
Weather models continue to grow more bullish on rainfall amounts with the new GFS even more aggressive than the prior two runs…and those runs were aggressive. The map would show 4 inch plus amounts possible. I’m not ready to sign off on this but the upper air certainly does support a solid couple of inches in most places. Needless to say that if this pans out, whatever is left of the drought will be completely wiped out.
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