flooding risk

Flooding Risk High This Weekend

Flooding Risk High This Weekend

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Flooding Risk High This Weekend

We continue to look at the weekend weather system as weather models are all lining up for a heavy rain event. The GFS model is the most bullish with rainfall amounts showing a widespread 2 to 4 inch rainfall for Saturday into Sunday morning. The heaviest rain will fall Saturday night. Certainly if these numbers verify there will be flooding issues when you wake up Sunday morning.

FLOODING RISK HIGH GFS RAINFALL AMOUNTS

flooding

The GFS maintains a well defined feature at mid levels of the atmosphere and shows a very strong inflow from off the ocean as low pressure develops along the New Jersey coast. Other models are a little less robust but the Canadian and European model do show 1 to 3 inch rain amounts are possible.

FLOODING RISK CANADIAN MODEL TOTAL RAINFALL

flooding risk

Given that we are no longer in a drought and rivers and streams have returned to their normal levels it would not be a surprise to see a flooding risk from this weather system. Rain will move in from south to north during Saturday morning. with the heaviest rain developing later Saturday afternoon and moving south to north Saturday night into Sunday morning.

FLOODING RISK GFS SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY EVENING

flooding risk

The breaking down of the block would argue for this weather system to move along so there is a fair chance that we could see slowly improving weather conditions from south to north on Sunday, Mother’s Day, however i would look for the rain to linger into the afternoon across Connecticut and Long Island especially as you go east…while areas to the west like Western and South Jersey and Eastern Pennsylvania could see improvement faster with the rain done before daybreak Sunday. Once this system is done it looks like next week we will return to a more normal pattern for May which is for weather systems to move west to east on a regular basis. This should allow temperatures to warm up into the 70s for a few days (depending on wind direction). Monday and Tuesday look dry with some sunshine both days.

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