No changes in the weather forecast and outlook. The leading edge of the cold dry air mass is moving in today as we are enjoying sunshine and temperatures will make it into the 60s. As we have been saying all week Sunday and Monday are the 2 coldest mornings and there will be frosts and freezes though in some areas any clouds and wind might make a difference. These are the forecast lows for those two morning.
The mean dates for first freeze are around October 21st for inland areas, around November 1st for Long Island and November 11th for New York City. There should be a fair amount of sun over the weekend though on Sunday some clouds come into the mix as a disturbance crosses Pennsylvania and Southern New York. Some inland areas might see a sprinkle or even a snow flurry out of this but that’s just about it.
The core of the cold air pulls out pretty fast on Monday as there is nothing in the upper atmosphere to the hold to cold in so the rebound in temperatures will be pretty quick. 50s Saturday..40s to low 50s on Sunday and 50s on Monday. We should then climb back into the 60s Tuesday and by Wednesday and Thursday of next week we will probably be close to 70.
The overall pattern is very quiet from a storm standpoint. There are no big storms on the horizon for the next 7 days. There are some indications that the tropics might get active with models pointing to something in the Gulf of Mexico developing and they also seem to be keying on something in the Southwest Atlantic. These are events in the longer range and as has been the case all season long, we will be a little skeptical given the strong el nino and wind shear. The Gulf of Mexico system seems to have the best shot of developing.
In case you missed the weather service came out with its winter outlook yesterday which was very el nino biased. JOESTRADAMUS has more on what this all means and why it may not necessarily be that obvious.
Be sure to download my app and subscribe to my forecasts. The app is free and a subscription is just 99 cents a month. Available for android and IPhone.