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Weather Deteriorates Next 2 Days Split Weekend
We are enjoying another nice day with lots of sunshine and temperatures reaching into the 70s. We don’t expect anything to happen today and tonight but clouds with showers and thunderstorms are spreading into the Middle Mississippi Valley southwestward into Texas and that is our next weather system that we will be dealing with late Thursday & Friday. Also clouds in the Plains marks the leading edge of another shortwave trough that is going to get involved with this southern system on Friday. Radars are taking a break here locally and there are no issues tonight with clear skies and most lows in the 40s.
Thursday we start to see a warm front forming to our south across Virginia & the Delmarva Peninsula. This starts an onshore flow (wind of the ocean). We should start Thursday with some sunshine but clouds will be increasing ahead of the warm front. Temperatures along the coast will be in the 50s to near 60 and inland temperatures will be in the 60s with the warmest readings as you go west in Western New Jersey and inland in the Hudson Valley. Some showers will likely come in Thursday night ahead of the warm front which should pass Friday morning.
As always with warm fronts in the spring it is a battle as to how far north it gets and how much of a warm sector do we get into. The cold front swings east and there will be some showers and thunderstorms later Friday afternoon and evening. This will be the third Friday in a row with a cold front and the chance for rain. Temperatures along the coast will reach the 60s and inland areas should reach the 70s especially if we get into some breaks of sunshine. Rainfall amounts should be on the order of 3/4 inch to an inch in most places.
If we get into the warm sector solidly there is a chance that thunderstorms could be a bit stronger so there might be some upside to these rainfall amounts. The front passes offshore and we head into the weekend with Saturday being the better of the two weekend days. We should see a mix of sun and clouds with highs mostly in the 60s.
On to Sunday and here comes the next weather system and here is where it becomes a bit tricky. Weather models are more dynamic with the lead system for Friday which might force the next weather system for Sunday to be weaker but it also might force it to go further south. The resulting onshore flow would mean cloudy skies Sunday with highs in the 50s north of the low center but some areas across Southern New Jersey and Southern Pennsylvania could see temperatures in the 60s if the low passes to the north of this area. In these areas there would be nothing more than some passing showers while north of the low center it will be a cloudy dreary day with rain and temperatures in the 50s.
This is always a forecast dilemma in the spring regarding the impact of the cold ocean and onshore winds. We will try and work this out over the next day or two on the specifics. Next week starts dry as April comes to an end. A ridge builds in the East which would normally mean warmer than average temperatures but again that onshore flow could become troublesome as early as Tuesday.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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