Warmer More Humid Severe Weather Risk Expands Wednesday
Today we will see humidity levels rise as we transition over into a very warm and humid air mass. Slowing the process somewhat today is low pressure that is offshore this morning producing an area of rain off the New Jersey coast and off the south shore of Long Island. Unless there is a quick grazing of coastal areas the rain stays offshore. We are seeing some high clouds around this morning. As the wave moves to the east clouds will decrease inland and then later today along the coast. We will go to a mix of sun and clouds. Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s. There is the chance for some pop up showers and thunderstorms mainly inland.
Regional radar is showing an area of rain off to the east of Delaware & Southern New Jersey moving northeastward. It appears that the western edge of the rain is staying offshore through a quick grazing of coastal areas can’t be ruled out. Even if it happens it doesn’t amount to much.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
We are setting up for an approaching cold front and upper trough for Wednesday. Tonight will be a very warm and humid night with most lows of 70 to 75. Then Wednesday will be a very warm to hot day with some sunshine. Daytime heating will be key once again to the strength of thunderstorms later Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some renegade cells are likely to pop up during the day with the main line coming through late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around or just over 90 degrees. The Storm Prediction Center has expanded the risk area for Wednesday in all directions.
Various weather models all have their usual diverging views on what is going to happen late tomorrow. We continue to see a set up similar to the last several severe weather set ups. The best approach is to identify the risk area and then follow the radars as the thunderstorms develop. We think there is a good chance for a solid line of thunderstorms impacting a large geographic area.
We don’t see any major changes in the outlook for Thursday as another cold front approaches for late in the day. There doesn’t appear to be much left for this front to work on so other than a shower or thunderstorm in one or two spots, much of Thursday will be dry with sunshine. Highs will be in the 80s to near 90. Then we will see dew points crash lower Friday and into the weekend. Look for sunshine Friday with highs in the low to mid 80s with a nice northwest breeze.
The weekend is looking very good thanks to this nice 3 day stretch of low humidity. Sunshine for Saturday will make for a delightful day with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. The dry air should hang on for Sunday with sunshine and highs between 80 and 85. Next week brings another quick warm up and an increase in humidity but another cold front with another round of dry air is on tap for us.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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