WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTH, SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT
WARM HUMID AIR ARRIVES, FORMIDABLE FLORENCE CATEGORY 4
It was a miserable day with an October feel to it. We continue to sit in lots of clouds. The steadiest rain has now moved north of NYC leaving areas to the south in clouds and some spotty drizzle or even a passing shower. The warm front has gotten a bit closer so temperatures are responding by slowly inching higher. We spend most of the day in the 50s. Look for readings to rise into and through the 60s overnight. Some patchy dense fog is likely along with a shower or thunderstorm when the warm front moves through.
The Storm Prediction Center does mention a marginal risk for severe weather tonight as the warm front arrives and moves through. Right now with the steady rain to the north, everyone else is sitting in some light rain or drizzle, or just nothing. We will be watching tonight to see if any storms do fire up.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The next few days it is back to warm and humid conditions which will be here for the rest of the week. Temperatures will reach back to the upper 70s and lower 80s. Some showers and thunderstorms could pop up. The same holds for Wednesday and probably Thursday. We can say that our area does not have to worry about a direct hit from Florence. Whether the rains or the remnant system winds up being an issue in the long range remains to be seen. For now it is hard to see beyond the end of the week with any kind of confidence in the forecast.
FLORENCE STRENGTHENS FURTHER 140 MPH WINDS CATEGORY 4
Hurricane Florence Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018
500 PM AST Mon Sep 10 2018
…FLORENCE GROWING IN SIZE AND STRENGTH…
…HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED TUESDAY
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
ABOUT 525 MI…845 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
ABOUT 1170 MI…1880 KM ESE OF CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…140 MPH…220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…939 MB…27.73 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.
Interests in the southeastern and mid-Atlantic states should monitor
the progress of Florence. Storm Surge and Hurricane watches could
be issued for portions of these areas by Tuesday morning.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Florence was located
near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 61.1 West. Florence is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). This general motion
with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next couple
of days. A turn toward the northwest is forecast to occur late
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Florence will
move over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean between Bermuda and the
Bahamas Tuesday and Wednesday, and approach the coast of South
Carolina or North Carolina on Thursday.
Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts. Florence is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Further strengthening is anticipated,
and Florence is expected to be an extremely dangerous major
hurricane through Thursday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 939 mb (27.73 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
SURF: Swells generated by Florence are affecting Bermuda and
portions of the U.S. East Coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.