Tropical Wave Central Caribbean Better Organized
Tropical Wave Central Caribbean Better Organized
We have been watching two tropical waves in the Atlantic basin and the one in the Central Caribbean continues to get better organized during the day. Satellite loops show a large area of convection and some evidence of a mid level circulation trying to develop. This system is moving westward and as it nears the Northwest Caribbean, conditions will be even more favorable for development. The big question here is whether the system moves into northern parts of Central America or does it remain in the open waters and head further north toward the Yucatan Peninsula.
The National Hurricane Center has this at a 50 percent chance of development in the next 48 hours and 70 percent in the next 5 days.
Weather models strengthen this to possibly a minimal hurricane once it gets into the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico but it has to get there first.
In the Tropical Atlantic the wave that is out in the Eastern Atlantic seems to be also getting better organized this afternoon however this system has had issues from the beginning. Thunderstorms seem to be a bit more concentrated this afternoon.
The forecast going forward will hinge on a large upper air storm that is once again taking shape in the South Atlantic. This could create hostile wind conditions when it gets further west.
Should something survive the trip across this is the projected track. Models are well clustered together with a west northwest course. The National Hurricane Center rates this a 30 percent chance in the next 48 hours and 50 percent in the next 5 days.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS
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