TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS, DANNY WINDS AT 50 MPH

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/04L/imagery/ft_lalo-animated.gif
…TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARDISLANDS…

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST…0900 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…15.8N 56.0W
ABOUT 360 MI…580 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 395 MI…635 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…50 MPH…85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 MPH…24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1001 MB…29.56 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
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CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of Antigua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Antigua, Barbuda, Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* Guadeloupe, St. Barthelemy, and St. Martin

Overnight Danny has continued to weaken with top winds down to 50 mph as the tropical storm heads westward. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted parts of the Leeward Islands as the storm conintues toward the west. Conditions continue to favor further weakening. The loop overnight showed thunderstorms flaring up from time to time but there is no relaxation of the very strong shearing environment that exists aloft. Models show this shearing area will remain for at least the next 2 days and again one has to consider that Danny may be shreaded down to a depression or even a remnant low as it moves to the west.
nhcprog
The Hurricane center forecast track has been shifted a little further south and takes the system over Puerto Rico and skimming the northern parts of the Dominican Republic. This is another reason that favors deterioration give the interaction of any circulation with the terrain of those islands.

Further east we have another system that looks rather impressive on the satellite this morning and a depression could form behind Danny over the next day or two.
sat2
The satellite loop shows what appears to be at least a mid level circulation present. The Hurricane Center gives this a 70 percent chance of tropical cyclone development in the next 5 days. However you have to wonder whether this system might encounter the same issues that Danny did down the road.

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