TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS WINDS 60 MPH
TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WINDS 60 MPH HEADING WEST
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
The signature of Tropical Storm Matthew is very impressive and it continues to become better organized. The Air Force plane found flight level winds over 70 knots already so this system shows every indication of strengthening into a hurricane over the next few days. Wind shear conditions over the Eastern Caribbean have relaxed. The center appears to be moving westward and little change in that motion is expect for the next few days. Models continue to show the sharp northward turn in about 3 or 4 days so we will see where this all takes us.
...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORMS IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.4N 60.7W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF ST. VINCENT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the French Islands of Guadeloupe and Martinique. The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Barbados, Dominica, and St. Vincent and the Grenadine Islands. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for St. Lucia. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Guadeloupe and Martinique * St. Lucia * Dominica, Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadine Islands Interests in Bonaire, Curacao, Aruba, and elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Matthew. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Matthew was located near latitude 13.4 North, longitude 60.7 West. Matthew is moving toward the west near 21 mph (33 km/h). A westward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Matthew will move through the Windward Islands during the next couple of hours, and move over the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Matthew could become a hurricane by Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km) primarily to the notheast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread over the southern Leeward Islands and northern Windward Islands witin the next few hours and continue into this evening. RAINFALL: Matthew is expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the Windward Islands and southern portions of the Leeward Islands through Thursday. These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected farther to the north into the northern Leeward Islands, including the United States and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.
GFS MODEL ANALYSIS ON TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW
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