tropical storm harvey rainfalll forecast

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY STRENGTHENING HURRICANE WATCH TEXAS COAST

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY STRENGTHENING HURRICANE WATCH TEXAS COAST

 

TROPICAL STORM HARVEY STRENGTHENING

HURRICANE WATCH TEXAS COAST

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Reports from an Air Force Plane found a large band of 45 to 60 knot winds at flight level in the northeast quadrant. Harvey has once again reached tropical storm strength

Tropical Storm Harvey Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1100 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017

…AIR FORCE PLANE FINDS TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS…

An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft just measured
tropical storm force winds in Harvey. The maximum winds are
estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM CDT…0400 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…22.0N 92.6W
ABOUT 500 MI…810 KM SSE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 440 MI…705 KM SE OF PORT MANSFIELD TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 MPH…4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1002 MB…29.59 INCHES

 

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The upper low in the Northwest Gulf of Mexico is all but gone now which means that conditions are favorable for gradual strengthening. Tropical Storm Harvey could become a hurricane before making landfall along or near the South Texas Coast Friday night or early Saturday morning

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Model guidance has shifted a bit west and south during the evening but the same premise remains. Tropical Storm Harvey will slow down or even stall somewhere in South Texas creating a massive rainfall for much of East Texas over the weekend.

GFS RAINFALL FORECAST TROPICAL STORM HARVEY

tropical storm harvey rainfalll forecast

The GFS model has gotten more aggressive with intensity raising this to a category 3 hurricane before landfall. It should be STRONGLY noted that intensity forecasts are very difficult and volatile in both directions.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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