tropical storm harvey

Tropical Storm Harvey May Form Later Today Warnings Posted

Tropical Storm Harvey May Form Later Today Warnings Posted

Tropical Storm Harvey May Form Later Today Warnings Posted

Based on the satellite loop this morning the tropical wave east of the Southern Leeward Islands has become much better organized. Thunderstorms have been increasing west of a developing low level circulation. Conditions aloft are favorable for development and a tropical depression or tropical storm  is likely to develop later today.

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You can also see the wave behind it is also becoming better organized and it appears that there is a circulation developing there as well. The National Hurricane Center has this rated at a 60 percent chance of developing into a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next several days.

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…LOW PRESSURE AREA EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXPECTED TO BECOME
A TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT…

 

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST…1500 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————–
LOCATION…13.1N 54.1W
ABOUT 365 MI…585 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 465 MI…750 KM E OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…35 MPH…55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH…28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1008 MB…29.77 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Warning For
Martinique.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines.

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* Barbados
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for…
* Dominica

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24-36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24-36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

tropical storm harvey

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 13.1 North, longitude 54.1 West. The system is moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance should move through the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone later
today or tonight, and it could become a tropical storm before
reaching the Windward islands.

If the current trends continue, the system will likely become a
tropical cyclone later today or tonight. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).

 

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
———————-
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
Lesser Antilles within the warning area by early Friday, making
outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce rainfall totals of
2 to 4 inches across portions of the Windward Islands from
Martinique southward to Grenada. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

 

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There is a large upper low over the Bahamas moving westward. This could create a favorable environment for this system to eventually develop into a hurricane. A NOAA plane is enroute to investigate.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

 

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