tropical storm

Tropical Storm Formation Possible However?

Tropical Storm Formation Possible However?

Tropical Storm Formation Possible However?

We have been focusing attention on the possibility of tropical storm development later this week somewhere off the Southeast US coast southward into the Caribbean. Satellite loops show two separate areas with one deep in the Southern Caribbean. The other near the Bahamas is what models develop into some sort of tropical storm or possibly a subtropical storm. Weather models have been telegraphing this for many days. My view on this would have been to haev some sort of tropical system (not a hurricane) loaded with moisture that would ride up the coast and give us much needed rain. However weather models continue to trend this system away from the US East coast.

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Latest model runs are far less dynamic with the approaching trough swinging in from the west. Models were overly aggressive with phasing the northern and southern jet streams together.

tropical storm

When you set the above maps in motion you can see how the northern jet stream overwhelms the south. This causes the tropical storm to be kicked away to the northeast and offshore. The European & Canadian Models at this stage are all remarkably similar. They also do not produce a substantial amount of rain from the approaching cold front.

Now of course we are still 5 days away so we will see if models trend differently going forward. There are no changes to the weather outlook for the next several days which will feature very warm temperatures with record or near record high temperatures for the entire region with nothing worse than a mix of sun and clouds.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 1 OCEAN WATER TEMPERATURES

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 2 ARCTIC SEA ICE AND SIBERIAN SNOW COVER

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 3 NEW JERSEY PREVIEW

WINTER 2016-2017 PART 4 EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA PREVIEW

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Long Island

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For New Jersey

FiOS1 News Weather Forecast For Hudson Valley

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS

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