Tropical Storm Earl Moving West
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Tropical Storm Earl Moving West
Latest satellite and observations show that Tropical Storm Earl is strengthening this afternoon. Top winds are now 50 mph as it continues to move to the west at about 20 mph. The latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center on Tropical Storm Earl follows.
...EARL A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 80.8W ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: NONE SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER * CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM PUNTA ALLEN, MEXICO, SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE CAYMAN ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA, PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 80.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 22 MPH (35 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK, THE CENTER OF EARL WILL BE MOVING VERY CLOSE TO THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AND APPROACH BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATE WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH (85 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE EARL REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM) FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM AN AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 1002 MB (29.59 INCHES).
With the strong ridge to the north and the very deep easterly trade winds, Earl will continue westward though it may slow down as the ridge in the north weakens a little over the next few days.
The most aggressive of the models in terms of strength is the HWRF model which develops this into a hurricane this afternoon before it moves inland over Belize. The forecast track westward seems pretty straight foward as there is no real weakness to the north to allow the hurricane to head into the Northwest Caribbean or threaten the United States Gulf Coast.
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