Tropical Storm Development Eastern Atlantic Possible Over The Weekend
Tropical Storm Development Eastern Atlantic
Possible Over The Weekend
Overnight the strong tropical wave that emerged from the African coast continues to move westward and remains well defined on the satellite pictures and loops this morning. Above is the picture from 2am and you can see the the large area of thunderstorms. It remains a bit elongated but there at least on the loop appears to be a mid level circulation and possibly even a low level circulation is beginning to develop. The National Hurricane Center raises the probability of development to 50 percent in the next 48 hours. The vast majority of eather models overnight actually develop this system rather quickly into a tropical storm by Sunday. However it should be noted that the European model doesn’t do much with this system and just carries it westward as a weak system.
The water vapor loop shows low wind shear conditions in the tropical Atlantic and much less dry air which has been present for the last month or so. Upper air conditions would suggest this system will track westward and gradually strengthen as it moves across the Atlantic over the next 5 to 7 days. Weather models will continue to do what they do with this in the long term however we would rather focus on whether this develops first before getting to wrapped up in where it might be going.
We also have a tropical wave in the Eastern Caribbean that remains disorganized however when it reaches the Northwest Caribbean conditions will become more favorable for development.
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