Tropical Disturbances Develop In Atlantic Basin

Satellite loops this afternoon show two distinct features that we are watching. Neither post any threat to land. The first is disturbed weather southwest of Bermuda. This was part of a complex upper air cold low which if you look on the loop, has separated from the convection to the east. That cold low continues to move westward which creates a favorable environment for this system to develop over the next few days.

The ocean water temperatures here are warm enough to support tropical storm development and they are running above average in this area. Weather models vary on how they see this. The RGEM has the more bullish view as it develops the system to some degree by Friday morning off the Southeast coast of the US.

The cold front that will put an end to our steamy weather will push southward as the upper air winds across the Atlantic turn westerly north of 35 degrees north. This should create an alley way for any offshore system to turn north and then northeast and not be an issue.

Below is the satellite loop of the entire Atlantic and on the lower right you can see a strong tropical wave generating showers and thunderstorms. There is some curvature to this and conditions are favorable for some development here over the next few days. Ocean water temperatures are a little cooler than average here which could hold things back.

Longer term for this system it appears that conditions will become a bit hostile for it as it nears the Northeast Caribbean where strong upper air winds will likely keep this system from becoming anything of consequence.

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