Tropical Development Likely

Tropical Development Likely Off SE US Coast

Tropical Development Likely Off SE US Coast

The chances for tropical storm development over the next five days continues to increase. Latest satellite loops are showing the area of disturbed weather east of the Bahamas becoming better organized. Low pressure is developing there and that low will track west or west northwestward toward the US Southeast Coast. This is pretty consistent with all weather models which have been showing this for the past 5 to 6 days. It is highly unusual to have a threat for a tropical storm for the Memorial Day holiday weekend but interests from North Carolina southward to Georgia are going to have to start paying closer attention.

Tropical Development Likely

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Tropical Development Likely

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER 5 DAY OUTLOOK

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION POSSIBLE

Water temperatures remain borderline on the latest observations. However the upper air profile off the southeast coast of the US continues to show favorable conditions for development with a decent outflow set up and an area of low wind shear.. The map below is the wind profile of the higher levels atmosphere above 25-30 thousand feet. Winds are forecast to be very light at that level and that is a key factor in tropical storm formation.

Tropical Development Likely

HIGH LEVEL WIND SHEAR FORECAST

gfs120 Tropical Cyclone Development

 

We will monitor this of course and given the time of year, conditions have to really line up for tropical storm formation. It seems some of the pieces of the puzzle are there. Now it is a matter of how they come together.

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