Tropical Depression Close To Tropical Storm Strength
Tropical Depression Close To Tropical Storm Strength
Satellite pictures show the tropical depression in the Eastern Atlantic continues to become better organized this afternoon. You can see on the wide satellite loop above where it is with perspective to the US coastline. It isn’t even close. On the close up loop below it appears that convection is developing this afternoon close to the circulation center and it is likely that the tropical depression will be upgraded to a tropical storm this evening.
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.0N 36.4W ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 36.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is likely to become a tropical storm today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).
The tropical depression or tropical storm will move west northwest or northwest over the next several days. There is a large weakness that is going to be developing in the Central Atlantic which opens an escape route for this tropical system to begin recurving well before it hits 55 west.
The other issue is an upper low in the high levels of the atmosphere in the Central Atlantic which will create strong shear and hostile conditions for the tropical depression or tropical storm once it gets there. In the meantime there is a day or two of strengthening possible before it reaches the more hostile environment.
The European model keeps the system weaker and therefore it responds to the low level easterlies that are present. This carries the system closer to 60 west by Monday. However there is a deep trough in the Eastern US Monday which would cause recurvature regardless.
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