Tropical Depression Could Form This Weekend

Tropical Depression Could Form This Weekend

Tropical Depression Could Form This Weekend

Judging from the satellite loop this afternoon, this new disturbance that is south of the Cape Verde Islands appears well organized. While a surface circulation has not formed yet, there are signs at mid and high levels that this system is beginning to get its act together. Some (but not all) of the hurricane models are bullish on development and the HWRF has this system reaching tropical storm strength as early as Monday.

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You can see it here on this loop view below and where it is in relation to Tropical Storm Fiona. It also will not be getting involved in the strong shearing environment that exists north of 20 degrees north and west of 50 degrees west as this system is likely to move south along and north of 10 degrees north latitude through early next week.

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Below are three model views of this system in 5 days. The GFDL keeps it weak and is the furthest north as it bypasses all the islands. The GFS & HWRFF model are furthers south with the HWRF the strongest as it gets this to hurricane strength before crossing the northern Windwards/Southern Leeward Islands.

GFDL MODEL NEXT WEDNESDAY

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HWRF MODEL NEXT WEDNESDAY

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GFS MODEL NEXT WEDNESDAY

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It should be noted that the European hardly develops this system at all and keeps it very weak as it moves across the Atlantic. The Canadian model which spins up anything and everything it can, strengthens Fiona and this system and takes them both northward in the Atlantic offshore between 65 and 70 west or so. The GFS has the storm crossing the islands from Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic as it heads further west on this run and eventually into the Gulf of Mexico.

CANADIAN MODEL VIEW SUNDAY AUGUST 28

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GFS MODEL SUNDAY AUGUST 28

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So what is a forecaster to do? Well frankly nothing. Nothing here is reliable enough to make any sense, particularly since this system hasn’t even developed a closed circulation yet. The HWRF did to well with Hurricane Earl a few weeks ago so that is something to bear in mind. With regards to the pattern over the United States, the European offers a bullish view with regards to something along the east coast but will there be something there?

EUROPEAN UPPER AIR FLOW NEXT SUNDAY

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Again all of this is purely speculative at this point. Lets see what this disturbance does going forward over the weekend and whether a tropical depression forms faster than models indicate or at least as fast as the HWRF model indicates.

 

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