Tropical Depression 9 Forms In Florida Straits
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9 FORMS IN FLORIDA STRAITS
Satellite loops, observation data and reports from an Air Force plane investigating INVEST 99L indicate that a well defined center of circulation has formed and we now (finally) have a tropical depression out of this after days of watching it.
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 81.7W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NE OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM S OF KEY WEST FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 81.7 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. On the forecast track, the depression will be moving away from the Florida Keys and into the Gulf of Mexico overnight. A turn toward the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed are expected on Monday followed by a turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Monday. The latest minimum central pressure reported by the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 4 inches over the southern half of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys through Wednesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible over coastal areas of southern Florida and the Keys. This rainfall may cause flooding and flash flooding. WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in a few squalls in the lower Florida Keys through tonight.
Tropical Depression 9 Forecast Next Few Days
Hurricane models are much more aggressive than the global models today with this system, Most take it into the North Central Gulf of Mexico before turning it northeast although some models keep it moving northwestward.
Today’s European model (unlike last night’s) does very little with this and meanders it in the Gulf of Mexico before it dies out. Global models have been highly volatile and inaccurate with this for days now as have the more aggressive hurricane models. The best approach is to see what it does in the next 36 to 48 hours as the system moves into the Southeast Gulf of Mexico. Conditions there are forecast to become more favorable for development.
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