Tropical Depression 8 Forms Off North Carolina
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8 FORMS OFF NORTH CAROLINA
We have been saying that these systems that form between the Southeast coast of the US and Bermuda have a tendency sometimes to pop up and develop and this is the case with disturbed weather east of the Carolinas. A tropical depression has formed there this morning and even though conditions are not ideal for tropical storm development, it seems to me that we could get there later today or tonight.
...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WEST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.5N 70.0W ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM W OF BERMUDA ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM SE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina should monitor the progress of the depression. A tropical storm watch may be required for part of this area later today. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 70.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A west-northwestward motion is expected later today and tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest and a decrease in forward speed on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone will pass offshore of the Outer Banks of North Carolina on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening in possible in the next couple of days, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from NOAA buoy 41048 is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None
Tropical Depression 8 Forecast Next Few Days
Most of the model forecasts take Tropical Depression 8 west or west northwest over the next 2 days or so and the model guidance has this all clustered off North Carolina by Tuesday. However after that all models turn this to the northeast.
Given the fact that the flow across much of of the northeast will be from Canada (northwest to southeast) this track makes the most sense.
Invest 99L Update
We continues to see thunderstorms in the Bahamas as low pressure moves west. There hasn’t been too much change in this system this morning and no signs of organization at the moment. Conditions become more favorable Monday when this is in the Southeast Gulf of Mexico.
Hurricane Gaston continues to strengthen with top winds of 105 mph moving northward. Gaston could strengthen further over the next day or so.
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