tropical depression 4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 NOT WELL ORGANIZED

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 NOT WELL ORGANIZED

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 NOT WELL ORGANIZED

We have 3 satellite loop views of Tropical Depression 4 and each one lends to the argument that the system is not well organized. Clearly there is a low level circulation and it is accelerating to the west. There seems to be a core of thunderstorms near the center but it is rather small. Some easterly shear is occurring which is moving the surface center along at a fast clip while some of the thunderstorm cloud tops are getting sheared off.

storm free

The other two issues continue to be Saharan dust to the east of the depression that is on the water vapor loop. It is gradually getting entrained into the circulation. The other is the strong upper low in the Central Atlantic which is creating strong southwest winds just east of 60 degrees west. If the dust doesn’t get this depression the wind shear will. Development at this point of anything more that what is there now is not likely. In fact Tropical Depression 4 could be gone in a few days as the remnant low moves west or west northwest.

storm free

 

storm free

…DEPRESSION ACCELERATING WESTWARD AND STILL NOT VERY WELL
ORGANIZED…

 

SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST…2100 UTC…INFORMATION
———————————————-
LOCATION…13.1N 44.9W
ABOUT 1110 MI…1785 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…30 MPH…45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH…37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…1009 MB…29.80 INCHES

 

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
——————–
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

 

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
——————————
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 44.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h). A
westward to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is
expected through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The depression is expected to degenerate to a remnant low by Friday
night, but it could also open up into a tropical wave at any time.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

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