Tropical Depression 2 Forms Off SE US
Forecast to Strengthen Next 2 Days
Latest observations from an Air Force aircraft indicate that the disturbed weather off the southeast coast has become better organized and Tropical Depression 2 has formed. Tropical Storm Warnings are posted for all of coastal South Carolina.
Tropical Depression 2 Forms Satellite Loop
Given the upper air conditions this could become a tropical storm before making landfall on Sunday somewhere along the South Carolina coast. If it does become a tropical storm it will be named Bonnie and this will be just the 5th time that we would have seen 2 named storms prior to the beginning of Hurricane season! Alex if you remember was back in January.
For us the issue is whether that moisture winds up being drawn up the eastern seaboard and ahead of a cold front. This would enhance the chance for showers here late Sunday night into Monday afternoon which puts Memorial Day in jeopardy. How much of this actually holds together remains to be seen.
The system is over cooler water at the moment and this is going to hold back development. Upper air winds are favorable with very low wind shear. Once the depression cross the warmer gulf stream it will have an opportunity to strengthen before landfall.
Tropical Depression 2 Forms
National Hurricane Center Forecast
The National Hurricane Center’s forecast takes the actual center and just pretty much meanders it along the Carolina coast as it moves northeastward. Once it moves inland not much of the circulation will survive so it will be a matter of how the moisture responds to an approaching front to the northwest. Whatever the case I don’t think this is going to be a big deal regarding the moisture coming up here. If it does we will get some additional shower activity and that will be about it. Also this would be for late Sunday night into Monday afternoon and until then the holiday weekend should be okay for Saturday and Sunday.
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