Sun Fades Away As Next System Approaches Friday Saturday Rain
At least the first part of the day was nice and sunny but we are beginning to see some high clouds moving in from the southwest. Moisture is beginning to load up for some rain during the early morning hours on Friday until the morning commute is done. This is in response to warmer air surging up the East Coast. However at least we managed to squeeze in a day of sunshine and dry weather. Temperatures are reaching into the upper 40s and a few lower 50s in some places this afternoon.
Regional radar is picking up on the rain that is now moving into North Carolina and soon into Virginia. This area will move into our neck of the woods after midnight. Temperatures overnight will likely hold in the 40s as the first batch goes by Friday morning.
After the first round is done we will just sit in clouds with temperatures in the 50s. Friday will have a dreary feel to it and then the next low moves east northeast across the Ohio Valley and head for the New Jersey coast as many systems seem to be doing lately. More rain is likely to develop later Friday night and go on and off through Saturday. This could be another round of 1 inch plus rains between the two weather systems.
Questions have risen regarding whether the rain changes to sleet and/or snow before ending thanks to several runs of the European model which seems to be standing alone on this idea. This includes the coastal areas where the model seems to be overly bullish on snow amounts on the back side. The problem here is the track of the low especially the primary low seems to far inland and north. Second is the amount of cold air that is readily available to come in on the backside. Saturday’s highs will still be in the 50s until the low begin to shift to the east and colder air starts to move south.
We are looking here at the temperatures at roughly 5000 feet where the freezing line on the NAM model pushes though NYC Saturday evening. This would argue for a change to snow however while the NAM is colder it is also drier on this run. The GFS is among the warmer and wetter solutions with the low tracking very close to NYC. The European over the month of December has been way to bullish with snow amounts in several events so we are leaning against anything significant on the back side. This however could play out differently
This is an early look at what the National Weather Service is thinking regarding this sequence of events and we could see some adjustments higher for the middle and upper Hudson Valley and New England. For now we will allow for the chance that it changes to snow before it ends for Eastern Pennsylvania to Southern New England but I would not expect to see much from this. Weather conditions should improve Sunday with gusty winds and some returning sunshine with temperatures in the chilly 30s.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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