Trying Again For Sunshine Thursday, Rain Friday Saturday Weekend Snow I-90 North
The first day of the new year should have brought at least some sunshine but it proved elusive for most today as instability clouds and a flow off the great lakes pretty much put an end to that possibility. Gusty winds in the mix made for a blustery day with temperatures struggling in the upper 30s and lower 40s. We still have a few clouds around this evening but we should go clear tonight as lows drop to the mid 20s to lower 30s by morning. Winds will should subside as well as high pressure passes by to our south. Radars were active upstate today but they have gone quiet now and should remain so on Thursday.
High pressure passes off to our south on Thursday which bends the wind back to the west and southwest. This should allow things to warm a bit in the afternoon and we should all see highs in the 40s. Then the next weather system begins to arrive with clouds coming in later in the day and thickening up Thursday night. Temperatures will likely go no where and some rain will develop during the early morning hours and it will be around for Friday morning as a warm front moves northward.
Once the warm front moves by, the first round of rain should be over with by midday Friday with clouds Friday afternoon and night. Friday’s highs will be in the 50s. The low in Arkansas heads to the northeast Friday night and Saturday bringing the next round of rain for Saturday into Saturday night.
Colder air will likely move into Upstate NY and New England and this could create a snow situation for areas north of I-90. Once again we are seeing a storm system along the coast however there is no cold high up in Canada to press that cold air southward. This means rain for coastal areas Saturday into Saturday night. highs will be in the 50s until the low goes by and that should be followed by colder and drier air for Sunday. Some of the models are having disagreements with the low itself with colder ICON & European models further south and the GFS farthest north with the low near Buffalo. The NAM model provides a compromise here and it seems fair given the nature of the upper air pattern going forward.
The jet stream pattern next week will favor some colder air into midweek but eventually the trough in the Eastern US pulls out thanks to a very strong trough driving once again into the Western Us. This means cold air is transitory and then once the energy in the west gets kicked eastward with the next storm system, it would mean another low to toward the Great Lakes and more rain for us. If you are looking for cold and snowy weather here in the coastal Northeast and Mid Atlantic states there appears to be little hope for that unless we get weather systems to time out perfectly with whatever cold air there is around. You may have to wait for at least the second half of January to get some real chances for snow in the I-95 corridor.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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