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Storm Threat Looms Sunday-Tuesday

Storm Threat Looms Sunday-Tuesday

NOREASTER STORM THREAT EARLY NEXT WEEK VIDEO ANALYSIS

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Storm Threat Looms Sunday-Tuesday
Noreaster Threat Heavy Rain & Wind…Snow Well North

Models have been trending toward the idea of a noreaster effect the Middle Atlantic and Northeast for late Sunday and lasting into Tuesday. This is probably going to be the strongest storm we have seen here since the Blizzard from almost a year ago to the day. The difference this time is that there is no real cold air except in areas to the north. Models attempt to bleed some cold air southward at low levels but at the moment it is not enough to make a real difference unless you are well north of Route 84 in New York State and in New England.

STORM THREAT EUROPEAN MODEL UPPER AIR FORECAST CLICK TO ANIMATE

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This is an impressive set up for the East Coast. A large blocking high is sitting to the north in Eastern Canada which forces the jet stream to lie south of its average position. This creates low pressure in the Southern states that moves east and then east northeast. The energy aloft with the southern system is substantial and will generate some very heavy rains up and down the East Coast that will make a serious dent in the drought.

STORM THREAT EUROPEAN MONDAY MORNING

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Strong high pressure lies to the north northeast of the storm which will lift northeastard from here. The pressure gradient is extremely tight which means strong winds are likely from the East or East southeast initially and then going around to the northeast over time. Winds will be gale force beginning Sunday night and lasting through Monday. Rains could be at least on the order of several inches or more.

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Now the big question. There is cold air to the north. All the models show some of that cold air attempting to bleed southward with the Canadian model the furthest south bringing sleet and wet snow as far south as Northern New Jersey, Southern Westchester, and Southern Connecticut and Northeast Pennsylvania.

STORM THREAT WILL COLD AIR BLEED SOUTH CANADIAN VIEW

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The Canadian model has the most aggressive view of this. Right now we area in watching mode with this. The other models have the same idea to different degrees. The GFS model has snow at the start in about the same areas as the Canadian produces accumulation snow/sleet. For now this is going to be treated as a rain event and we will watch to see what subsequent model runs do with all this.

MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE WONDERFUL USE OF THE MAPS

          

SNOW REMOVAL COMPANIES FOR YOUR WINTER NEEDS

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     ROCKLAND COUNTY                         TRI STATE SNOW REMOVAL                           JOHNSTOWN PA

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