Spring Winter Storm #Foureaster Getting Underway Winter Storm Warnings
Spring Winter Storm #Foureaster Getting Underway
Winter Storm Warnings
Much of the Middle Atlantic and the Northeast is under a Winter Storm Warning as the 4th noreaster in 2 1/2 weeks or as I have been calling it, a #foureaster, will be getting underway. This morning we are seeing clouds increasing from south to north and while we so have some sunshine north of NYC it is overcast to the south and the radars are showing the first round of precipitation moving northeastward from the Washington DC-Baltimore-Philadelphia area. Sleet is falling in Baltimore and rain is falling in Washington and across much of Eastern Maryland. This first area will make its way up the coast today and reach Central and Southern New Jersey but probably fall just shy of reaching NYC. Gradually colder air will be working into this equation and we will see rain change to a prolonged period of sleet for areas south of NYC.
From NYC north and east it is later tonight and Wednesday where we see sleet and snow developing and changing to all snow. The second stronger low revs up off the Delaware coast. Strong winds will develop along coastal areas with gusts to 50 mph. Coastal Flood Warnings have already been issued for New Jersey and it is likely to be issued for Long Island as well in future high tides. We have a long fetch of northeast winds off the ocean for the next 36 hours or so. Moderate coastal flooding is likely in some areas.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
Now as far as snow amounts are concerned I have been very reluctant to go as high as some of the National Weather Service snow forecasts are. Bear in mind the fragile state of trees and power lines and it will not take much snow and wind to cause widespread disruption again no matter whose forecast is closer to reality. The bottom line is that this is going to cause problems on Wednesday given the area’s rather fragile state at the moment.
JOE’S SNOW FORECAST WEDNESDAY MARCH 21, 2018
I raised the max amounts and attempted to draw a band of heavier 6 to 10 inch snows and keeping NYC lower. In the last 2 noreasters this area and other warmer urban centers got far less snow than surrounding more rural communities and I think it plays out the same way. Also note the snow area increases in Western Suffolk County which is due to the Long Island snow belt effect that exists.
North and west i did push the 4 to 6 inch line to Northwest New Jersey but bear in mind that for the northwest counties of New Jersey and northwest areas of the Hudson Valley there will be a sharp cutoff and i may be too far north and west with the higher amounts.
To the south in Central & Southern New Jersey as well as coastal New Jersey the question is how much sleet and for how long which could hold amounts down. In Connecticut I would expect that 6 to 10 inch works for all areas though amounts might tail off a bit north of Route 84.
Snow ends from west to east Wednesday night and it may not end until the early morning hours on Thursday for Connecticut and Long Island. Weather conditions improve Thursday with sunshine and clouds and highs into the 40s. Chilly weather continues Friday and into the weekend.
Four storms in 2 1/2 weeks has left everyone a bit stressed out. Let’s play this one through and hope this is the last one. Snow does melt this time of year and usually rather quickly.