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Spring Blocking Underway Makes Raw Wet Days Warmer In Between Systems
Hopefully you are finding a way to enjoy the horrors of spring. Look at what is happening this afternoon. After 2 dry nice days in desert air we had evaporational cooling as precipitation arrived this afternoon with sleet and even some snow in the mix. It was amazing to see snow and sleet on my drive to work this afternoon with temperatures in the middle 40s! It can happen under the right conditions and we did have the right conditions today.
Radars are busy right now with lead preciptitation moving through upstate New York which was the first shot and now we are watching rain advancing east across Pennsylvania and that will be here tonight. We should get about a quarter to a half inch of rain out of this overnight with rain ending before daybreak. Temperatures are in the raw 30s and lower 40s and they are likely to hold at these levels most of the night.
LOCAL RADAR NEW YORK CITY
The weekend outlook remains unchanged. Clouds Saturday morning will give way to sunshine with highs in the 60s to near 70 in some inland areas of New Jersey. Sunday we will see sunshine giving way to afternoon clouds but it should be a nice day with highs again in the 60s to near 70 except along the coast where the ocean wind will kick in at some point and lower temperatures into the 50s by late afternoon.
A warm front should pass through Monday morning with showers ahead of it later Sunday night into Monday morning. Then the sun should come out with warm air in here and temperatures should reach the 70s everywhere as the sun cuts through the clouds. Then a second low in the southern part of the jet stream makes its move and this creates a dilemma on Tuesday. Will the low head northeast and bring rain or does it get suppressed to the south. Suppression would bring some sunshine and clouds Tuesday with highs in the 60s so we need to resolve this issue over the weekend.
Looking ahead to the long range we are going to be under a blocking pattern with a strong high in the upper atmosphere over Greenland and building westward. What this does it prevents the normal flow of the jet stream from west to east where it is colder to the north and warmer to the south. Instead we have the reverse in the upper atmosphere with the jet stream suppressed well to the south. The jet is active with weather systems coming into the Pacific. This means weather systems will keep marching across every couple of days. The dry days in between should see temperatures try to reach into the 60s but on the whole they will be near or below average. Then the systems will try and pass to our south which sets us up for occasional rounds of weather like today where it is raw and cold with rain and temperatures in the 40s. This is typical of spring and April and this active blocking pattern is likely to hang around for awhile. It will make for challenging forecasts ahead.
MANY THANKS TO TROPICAL TIDBITS FOR THE USE OF MAPS
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