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Snow This Weekend Still No Weather Model Clarity

Snow This Weekend Still No Weather Model Clarity

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Snow This Weekend Still No Weather Model Clarity

As we said in an earlier post today, don’t expect any clarity from me regarding this system for late this week. While some may have it all figured out already, that’s great. I don’t. First off let me just say that what we are seeing is really not model “flip flopping” but rather, each model run is creating a slightly different scenario regarding how the upper air aligns itself in the east and the strength of the northern part of the jet stream verses the south. Here is what we have seen in the last 4 model runs.

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The two main cycle runs from 0z & 12z today show 2 looks with the dynamic overnight run (0z) giving way to the further south and suppressed southern stream 12z run. Now the two mid cycle runs have their own views on this as well.

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Now comes the mid cycle runs which attempt to phase north and south. The 6z model run would be a complete miss for the Northeast and would bring snow to southern areas of the Middle Atlantic States. The deeper 18z run today is phased and left which actually brings some snow back as far north as Southern New England.

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So at this point we continue to state that until models figure out what is really happening here, we take an agnostic view of this for at least another day or so. There is has been too much model volatility in this forecast range. I’m still waiting for the Wisconsin Blizzard from last month that never happend among others.  I think the threat is there but the forecast outcome is way to early in the game to determine. I would remind everyone that we were at this very point last year before the blizzard along with countless other storms over the years. Many model runs to go!

 

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