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Snow Threat NAM Canadian Models Thursday Night

Snow Threat NAM Canadian Models Thursday Night

Snow Threat NAM Canadian Models Thursday Night

With all the attention focused on a potential snow event for the weekend, the lead wave that is going to move offshore Thursday night has not gotten much attention up until now. Some weather models like the European and the Canadian model have been putting more attention on the lead wave then on the second. The NAM model now joins these two and even the GFS now recognizes this is going to be a closer call than origianlly forecast.

CANADIAN MODEL FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

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The key issue through all of this is how the models handle cold air. The GFS model has been guilty of overwhelming cold air and suppressing weather systems to the south. With regards to the first system this is becoming an increasingly false notion. Weather models are showing that it will take the development of at least the first wave to pull down more of the cold air southward. The result is the possibility of a minor snow fall later Thursday night into Friday on the order of a few inches if everything falls in the right place with higher amounts as you go south.

CANADIAN MODEL SNOW FORECAST

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The NAM model tonight is on the same page as the European of the last few days and the Canadian model tonight.

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NAM MODEL SURFACE MAPS FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING

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The NAM model reflection of the radar would suggest a coating to an inch or so of snow into Friday morning with perhaps a few more hours to follow which is outside the NAM’s range at the moment but will be in range on the next model run.

NAM MODEL SNOW FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING

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Now assuming that these models are correct the big question becomes what impact does that have on the second system behind it. Will there be room left? The GFS again overwhelms cold air and has a less deep upper air structure than the Canadian which is far more dynamic and leaves some room.

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The Canadians view would take an intensifying wave off shore with a near miss while the GFS would be so far out that except for the Carolinas and possibly Southern Virginia there will be little consequence. Since the Canadian model has been right maybe twice since the Crimean War, and the GFS loves to overdo cold air, we will at this point lay the second event aside for the moment until we can resolve the first one. If the European lines up with the NAM and Canadian, look for an early call snow forecast to pop up sometime Tuesday morning.

 

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