Snow Tonight Not Impressive

Snow Tonight Not Impressive

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WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND

Looking at the satellite and radar loops this afternoon the area of snow developing to the south looks rather unimpressive overall. Surface observations show a small area of moderate to heavy snow concentrated in Southeast Pennsylvania with only a handful of stations like Lancaster PA, & Harrisburg PA reporting accumulating snow. Other areas are reporting steady light snow but Philadelphia has been cloudy for hours and they are now beginning to report some snow.

One of the things that is happening is that if you look offshore there is a cluster of clouds racing eastward. Low pressure is developing offshore and moving northeastward. It is taking moisture away from the coast leaving the upper air disturbance not much to work on.

Snow Tonight Not Impressive Satellite & Radar Loops

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Such is the issue with sytems like this. You are left to work with the upper air dynamics and the snow becomes more convective looking. The radar might look like it does in the spring with just broken clusters of rain showers. This makes the forecast tricky because this is the sort of situation where if you get underneath something with a little power to it you could get a burst of snow that puts down a quick inch or two while other areas get little or nothing. This is the way I’m going to play this for tonight. There could be bursts of snow that could produce a coating to an inch or two and other areas get nothing. Short range models continue to show a weakening trend with all this.

Snow Tonight Not Impressive NAM MODEL & HRRR MODEL

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Now the NAM looks worse than it is. It develops a low and a small cluster of snow but precipitation being indicated is light. Same for the HRRR model which at 4am Wednesday morning shows very little snow and forecasts the main area to fall apart.

For now the area of snow over Southern Pennsylvania and Southern New Jersey will move north this evening and then gradually weaken as it continues northeast. We will have to see if the system somehow gets a little energy to it overnight. There is just too many little weather systems running around aloft that nothing serious can get going.

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