snow

Snow Threats Next Week

Snow Threats Next Week

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Snow Threats Next Week

There appear now to be snow snow threats on the table for this week after whatever happens on Sunday evening. I am going to be interested to see how that turns out. I would like to see a little out performance over the model forecasts. Then we proceed to the next 2 threats. The first is Wednesday evening into Thursday morning as we have an arctic front coming through and the prospects of a wave developing on it. Weather models have been shifting on this for a week. It first started with a low to the Great Lakes, then to Western NY, then to the immediate coast, and then far offshore. Now weather models led by the European and the Canadian model seem to be coming back the other way. Even the late afternoon GFS model run has shifted northwestward.

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The GFS model wanted to overwhelm us with cold air which is typically what the model loves to do only to back off when it gets closer to reality. It seems to be now trying. The Canadian and European were much further north and the European especially was far enough north to suggest a 2 to 4 or 3 to 6 inch snowfall with highest amounts east and south. The jury at this point is still out.

snow snow snow

All three models for the last 3 days have been suggesting the possibility of a snow/ice storm for next weekend. Today’s runs have provided the strongest indication yet that this is going to be on the table. The European model run is particularly intriguing as it takes the surface high into Maine and creates a cold air damming situation down the Appalachians. Remember this will be arctic air coming late this week and it will be hard to scour it out as it becomes trapped inland. This would create a serious ice storm situation in the interior Middle Atlantic and Northeast US. Obviously many runs to go here but it seems something may be in the cards. First things first will be Wednesday. Regardless of snow or not the second half of this week will be very cold. We should see one day with daytime highs possibly not much above 30.

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