Snow Threats Lie Ahead Next 10 Days
Snow Threats Lie Ahead Next 10 Days
Overnight weather models continue to come together on the blocking pattern going forward and it appears that there are several snow threats over the next 10 days that we will be looking at. The critical questions that like ahead for me are strength and track. The first system approaches for late Thursday into Friday. This appears to be the weakest of the three and weather models have been shifting the track south with each run. Also there is some argument regarding just how much of weather system we have with this. The European model shows little or nothing.
The second threat is for Saturday and Sunday and weather models seem to be in agreement here. The European overnight has shifted north while the GFS model has shifted south. Again the strength of the block is critical here. Too strong and it goes south, not strong enough and it goes north.
Early next week brings another snow threat and this one has all sorts of possibilities written all over it again depending on track and strength of blocking. But our rule here is one at a time.
At this point we have worked out the meteorology behind all this regarding the pattern going forward so now we will start to focus on the first threat for late this week. It seems the question is going to be how much if anything is there going to be with the first weather system. It appears weak to me. The GFS model is the most robust with this and would be on the order of a coating to a couple of inches in my view.
GFS SNOW FORECAST FRIDAY 03102017
The fact that the European has next to nothing with this leads me to be cautious at this point so I’m basically taking the GFS and cutting this in half at least for the time being.
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