Snow Threat Sunday Night Into Monday Increasing
Model runs today and specifically some the shorter range models are beginning to show a decisive shift to the west with the first storm that develops off the southeast coast of the United States this weekend. The NAM began this trend this morning and now is joined by the SREF model series which has shown this for a few runs now that it is inside its range. And late this afternoon we have the short range RGEM model going left of the NAM at 48 hours. These models outperformed the global models when inside their time range in the 3 snow events of the winter and all 3 involved last minute shifts to the west.
Snow Threat Sunday Night Into Monday Increasing NAM VS RGEM
Above are the NAM and RGEM maps for Sunday morning and both models show a definitive trend to the left and toward the coast. This is what we saw in the Blizzard of 2016, the cheap thrill snow 5 days before the Blizzard and we saw it last night and this morning’s wave along the coast. Other models are supportive of the idea. The European keeps hinting at it. The NAM clearly shows it at 84 hours. The GFS does not.
Snow Threat Sunday Night Into Monday Increasing NAM FORECAST MONDAY MORNING
Here is how I am going to approach this. Tonight’s run will at least nail the trend in my mind. I will be looking for a continued decisive shift. Now the other issue is that we have this intense diving trough into the Ohio Valley. It seems to me that trough is drawing this coastal low further west. If that happens it will lessen development of the second low because there simply won’t be enough room.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SNOW FORECASTS
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