Snow Threat Increases For Thursday
Snow Threat Increases For Thursday
Overnight weather models continue to come on board to the idea of a snow or rain changing over to accumulating snow situation for much of the area from Southern New Jersey to Southern New England and everyone in between. Firstly we have a rain event for Tuesday which the National Weather Service has put up Freezing Rain Advisories for the NW counties of New Jersey. Winter Weather Advisories are posted for Dutchess, Ulster, and Sullivan Counties northward. Also advisories are posted for Northern Connecticut north of Route 84. Frankly I’m not sure why they are up so far south but I guess it is to cover for the possibility there is some minor icing but that’s all it will be.
This morning we see dry air and sunshine as skies are clear for now. Clouds will start to arrive late today and thicken up tonight as low pressure heads for the Eastern Great Lakes. Rain comes in for tomorrow and it should be out by late afternoon or evening. One or two more showers overnight Tuesday and then Wednesday we sit in leftover clouds and some breaks of sun.
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It appears at this point that the front will stall out and a wave develops on it Wednesday night into Thursday. Colder air will be coming in at the same time so it appears to be a snow or rain changing to snow situation. We discussed yesterday what the issues are here with regards to timing. Last night’s model runs were very aggressive in terms of snow amounts especially the GFS model while the European was colder and southeast which would bring more snow for the coast than inland. The usual arguments play out here but right now I’m thinking this could be several inches or more for everyone along and north of Route 195 in New Jersey. This is going to be dependent on the timing of the arrivial of colder air and the development of the wave so there is a delicate balance here. Also the depth of the low comes into question as some models were a bit more aggressive with development than others. We have time to see this evolve and will update this later today.
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